Over the past month, we've seen rates hold relatively stable despite the uncertainty around the midterm elections. The 10yr is trading within the range of 3.05 and 3.25% and it’s currently at 3.15%. However, in the past year, rates are up about 80bps and it's generally believed the Fed will raise once more in 2018 and twice in 2019. A lot of that will depend on growth and inflation.
If it seems like interest rates have been going up almost every day, then you are correct. There has been this risk-off trade that has pushed stock and bond prices down. Investors are taking profits as there seems to be more and more concerns over valuations and the trade war with China.
For the last couple of weeks, we've seen interest rates creep up and up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now over 3%; something that hasn't happened very often since the financial crisis. The graph on your screen shows the 10-year for the past 8 years. What's interesting is the fact that the 10-year has not sustained a 3+% yield for 30 straight days since 2011.
Jason Obradovich, EVP of Capital Markets for New American Funding is back with the latest Mortgage Rundown. If you've been following the market, you may have noticed interest rates have slightly come down. What is going to happen to rates for the remainder of the year?
Jason Obradovich, EVP of Capital Markets for New American Funding is back with the latest Mortgage Rundown. With core inflation under 2% and the 10-year Treasury under 3%, the Federal Open Market Committee held steady on interest rates last week.
You probably noticed there has been very little interest-rate volatility recently. In fact, the tight range on the 10-year Treasury in June was the smallest it's been in several years.
Last week was the ever-important payroll report which showed 213k jobs added in June versus the 195k that was expected. A very positive sign but the more interesting piece of data was the unemployment rate which surprisingly went up from 3.8% to 4.0%. This was largely a result of a growing labor force, as the labor force participation rate also went up 0.2%.
Last week was another FOMC meeting where they raised the Fed Funds rate to the range of 1.75 to 2.0%, in what was a widely anticipated move. The attention now shifts to the meeting in September with the market pricing in an 81% chance of the Fed moving rates for a third time this year. Also, there is now a 50% chance the Fed will raise rates a fourth time in December.
If you've been following the market you've likely noticed that the 10-year Treasury is back down below 3%. When it seemed like nothing would stop the 10-year from rising to 3¼%, fears in Europe, mainly Italy caused a rush to safety. Right now the 10-year is trading right around 2.95% in a new range between 2.8 and 3.1%.
The 10-year finally broke through the key 3.03% resistance level and traded all the way up to 3.11%. While it looked like the 10-year was going to continue its climb closer to 3.20%, there have been some international growth concerns that have the 10yr back down to 3.01% currently.
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