Now that this extraordinary year is coming to a close, it’s time to look ahead to next year. And is customary around this time of year, various real estate observers are projecting what will happen in housing in 2021.
A little over a month ago, Veros Real Estate Solutions released its list of the 10 housing markets that will be the hottest over the next 12 months. That list included cities like Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Boise, Idaho.
But that was just one view of what’s going to happen in 2021. Now, a new forecast from realtor.com suggests that the top 10 housing markets in 2021 will be much different from the ones Veros suggested.
According to realtor.com, the top 10 housing markets of 2021 will include some of the nation’s largest housing markets, with a strong concentration on the Western part of the U.S.
In fact, four of realtor.com’s projected top 10 markets are in California.
Quite a few of 2021’s top housing markets are technology hubs, with the higher salaries of those tech jobs driving home prices up in those market.
“This past year, we’ve all become more reliant on technology to work, learn, and maintain personal connections. The technology hubs that make this possible are thriving, as are their housing markets,” realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale said.
“Additionally, the relative stability of government jobs in the past year has driven home prices and sales in several state capitals to the top,” Hale added. “Home buyers, particularly younger first-time buyers, looking in one of these markets should expect rising prices and heavy competition. Meanwhile, sellers will remain in a position of power, but will find themselves on the other side of the bargaining table when buying their next home.”
Now, without further ado, is realtor.com’s top 10 housing markets for 2021:
- Sacramento, California
- San Jose, California
- Charlotte, North Carolina
- Boise, Idaho
- Seattle, Washington
- Phoenix, Arizona
- Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
- Oxnard, California
- Denver, Colorado
- Riverside, California
As mentioned above, several of the top 10 are cities where there is either an existing or a growing technology scene, including Sacramento, San Jose, Boise, Denver, and Seattle. According to realtor.com, tech jobs are also on the rise in Charlotte and Phoenix.
The prevalence of tech jobs in those cities is leading to lower unemployment than in many other large cities.
Half of the markets in the top 10 are also state capitals (Sacramento, Boise, Phoenix, Harrisburg, and Denver). According to realtor.com, the “strong government presence” in those cities leads to stability in both the local economy and the labor market.
To determine the top 10 markets, realtor.com projected how much home prices would rise and how much home sales would accelerate in each city in 2021. From there, the site’s economists combined the price and sales growth figures together to determine which markets will grow by the most next year.
Sacramento, for example, is expected to see a home price increase of 7.4%. Beyond that, the real estate site expects home sales in Sacrament to increase by 17.2% next year. Add that together and you have sales and price growth of 24.6%, the highest in the nation and well above second place.
Coming in at #2 is San Jose, where higher home prices don’t seem to be deterring prospective homebuyers. The median home price in San Jose is nearly $1.2 million, but home prices and sales are both expected to rise by 10.8% next year. That combined sales and price growth of 21.6% places the Silicon Valley city in second position.
The remaining markets are all relatively close together in projected combined sales and price growth. Charlotte, which is third on realtor.com’s list has combined sales and price growth of 19%, while Riverside, which is 10th on the list, is expected to see sales and price growth of 17.9%.
The other markets all fall between those two figures.
According to realtor.com, home prices in the top 10 markets are expected to increase by 6.9% and sales are expected to rise by 13.1% year-over-year.
That’s “significantly higher” than the nationwide projection of 5.7% price appreciation and 7% sales growth.