Will Trade Tensions Cause a Mini Refinance Boom?
Trade tensions have caused the 10-Year Treasury to drop. Does this mean a mini refinance boom?
- May 16, 2019
- Mortgage News
Jason has 23 years of executive experience and expertise in the mortgage industry, developing and managing Capital Markets for financial institutions. He's held positions as Chief Investment Officer, EVP Capital Markets, EVP Financial Strategies and other similar roles for Kinecta Federal Credit Union, Countrywide/Bank of America and New American Funding.
Currently, he is responsible for managing pricing, trading, hedging, investor relationships, warehouse financing, MSR management, liquidity, etc. Jason also authors the Housing Market Update, a regular feature on the New American Funding blog which gives depth and perspective to today's economic news. Jason attended the University of California where he received a BA in Economics and is a member of several prominent mortgage industry trade organizations.
Trade tensions have caused the 10-Year Treasury to drop. Does this mean a mini refinance boom?
Strong jobs. Subdued inflation. A healthy stock market. But what might the future hold?
Have you heard? The FOMC has confirmed that rates will stay constant with no increases ahead.
Interest rates for consumers and homebuyers have gone down. It’s all a case of supply and demand.
Since our last update there has been very little movement in the market, specifically interest rates. The 10yr currently sits just under 2.70% and as of right now volatility has been very low.
No doubt by now you’ve noticed all the volatility in the market. Stocks haven’t gotten crushed and interest rates have dropped very quickly.
In the past 30 days we’ve seen interest rates drop and drop. In fact, the 10yr, which recently traded as high as 3.24%, a level not seen since 2011, is all the way down to 2.85%.
Over the past month we’ve seen rates hold relatively stable despite the uncertainty around the midterm elections. The 10yr is trading within the range of 3.05 and 3.25% and it’s currently at 3.15%. However, in the past year, rates are up about 80bps and it’s generally believed the Fed will raise once more in 2018 and twice in 2019. A lot of that will depend on growth and inflation.
If it seems like interest rates have been going up almost every day, then you are correct. There has been this risk off trade that has pushed stock and bond prices down. Investors are taking profits as there seems to be more and more concerns over valuations and the trade war with China.
For the last couple of weeks, we've seen interest rates creep up and up. In fact, the yield on the 10yr Treasury is now over 3%; something that hasn’t happened very often since the financial crisis. The graph on your screen shows the 10yr for the past 8 years. What’s interesting is the fact that the 10yr has not sustained a 3+% yield for 30 straight days since 2011.